Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations

S-Tier
Journal: Journal of Political Economy
Year: 2021
Volume: 129
Issue: 5
Pages: 1615 - 1639

Authors (4)

Francesco D’Acunto (not in RePEc) Ulrike Malmendier (not in RePEc) Juan Ospina (not in RePEc) Michael Weber (National Bureau of Economic Re...)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Consumers rely on the price changes of goods in their grocery bundles when forming expectations about aggregate inflation. We use micro data that uniquely match individual expectations, detailed information about consumption bundles, and item-level prices. The weights consumers assign to price changes depend on the frequency of purchase, rather than expenditure share, and positive price changes loom larger than negative price changes. Prices of goods offered in the same store but not purchased do not affect inflation expectations, nor do other dimensions. Our results provide empirical guidance for models of expectations formation with heterogeneous consumers.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/713192
Journal Field
General
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-26