Moving Average Detrending and the Analysis of Business Cycles.

B-Tier
Journal: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Year: 1995
Volume: 57
Issue: 4
Pages: 547-58

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This study complements the previous analyses of the effects of different types of detrending, by considering moving average detrending which is widely used in business cycle analysis by official and quasi-official agencies. Such detrending is shown to render a wide range of processes stationary, including those with up to second-order deterministic and/or stochastic nonstationartiy. At the same time, however, the medium and long run properties of the disturbance process are profoundly altered. Applied to an '1' (1) process, the component at a period equal to the moving average length is enhanced, with potentially serious consequences for business cycle analysis. If the detrending is applied to an '1' (2) process, the long run component is emphasized and the resulting (stationary) series may appear to be nonstationary. Copyright 1995 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:obuest:v:57:y:1995:i:4:p:547-58
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-26