Does high-speed rail reduce local CO2 emissions in China? A counterfactual approach

Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of high-speed rail (HSR) projects on CO2 emissions in targeted city nodes of four selected HSR lines/segments in China. We employ a panel data counterfactual approach to analyze the impact of HSR on local CO2 emissions using prefecture-level data. We consider 18 treatment cities and 10 control cities with no HSR to determine how the introduction of HSR affects CO2 emissions and analyze the factors that determined the disparity in HSR impacts. We find that CO2 emissions increased in the early construction period. However, HSR projects significantly and continuously decreased CO2 emissions for most treatment cities during the operation period. We also find that the CO2 reduction effect was larger in cities with more human capital and technological innovation. These findings provide empirical evidence that building HSR helps reduce CO2 emissions; governments should improve HSR technologies and expand HSR networks to promote environmentally friendly development.