The Real Effects of Monetary Expansions: Evidence from a Large-scale Historical Experiment

S-Tier
Journal: Review of Economic Studies
Year: 2022
Volume: 89
Issue: 3
Pages: 1593-1627

Score contribution per author:

8.043 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

The discovery of massive deposits of precious metals in America during the early modern period caused an exogenous monetary injection to Europe’s money supply. I use this episode to identify the causal effects of money. Using a panel of six European countries, I find that monetary expansions had a material impact on real economic activity. The magnitudes are substantial and persist for a long time: an exogenous 10% increase in the production of precious metals in America measured relative to the European stock leads to a front-loaded response of output and, to a lesser extent, inflation. There was a positive hump-shaped response of real GDP, with a cumulative increase up to 0.9% six to nine years later. The evidence suggests that this is because prices responded to monetary injections with considerable lags.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:restud:v:89:y:2022:i:3:p:1593-1627.
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-28