Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
We develop a model that estimates the joint determination of the probability of a distressed bank to go bankrupt or to be bailed out. We obtain precise parameter estimates and superior in- and out-of-sample forecasts, which demonstrate that the determinants of failures differ from those of bailouts. Overall, we provide a concrete and reliable mechanism for preventing welfare losses due to bank distress.