Inflation and price flexibility

B-Tier
Journal: European Economic Review
Year: 2025
Volume: 178
Issue: C

Authors (3)

Petrella, Ivan (Centre for Economic Policy Res...) Santoro, Emiliano (not in RePEc) Winkelmann, Yannik (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Using UK consumer price microdata, we report that aggregate price flexibility varies substantially over time and induces significant non-linearity in inflation. In a regime of high flexibility, the half-life of inflation drops by 50% and its volatility rises considerably. Such asymmetry arises naturally from state-dependent pricing, of which we find ample evidence in the data, particularly following the Great Recession. Neglecting this property may lead to a systematic underprediction of inflation, as seen in the post-pandemic inflation surge. Tracking real-time movements in price flexibility is crucial for assessing inflation dynamics and informing monetary policy decisions.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eecrev:v:178:y:2025:i:c:s0014292125001060
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29