Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
I propose a simple to implement bootstrap-based efficiency (BBE) test to reexamine the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts for Germany. The BBE test is useful as a test of forecast efficiency when a researcher, as is usually the case, can use a large number of macroeconomic and financial variables to proxy the information set of a forecast producer at the time when a forecast was published. A large number of proxy variables translates into a large number of candidate efficiency-regression models and the decision problem is that it is a priori unclear which model a researcher should choose to test for forecast efficiency. The BBE test solves this decision problem in that it requires a researcher to sample from the set of candidate models and, thereby, makes the decision problem tractable.