Oil price forecasting under asymmetric loss

C-Tier
Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2013
Volume: 45
Issue: 17
Pages: 2371-2379

Authors (3)

Christian Pierdzioch (Helmut Schmidt Universität Ham...) Jan-Christoph Rülke (not in RePEc) Georg Stadtmann (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.335 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Based on the approach developed by Elliott <italic>et&#xA0;al</italic>. (2005), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price of oil tended to be larger than the loss they incurred when their forecast fell short of the price of oil. Accounting for the asymmetry of the loss function does not necessarily make forecasts look rational.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:17:p:2371-2379
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29