Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Finance
Year: 2001
Volume: 56
Issue: 1
Pages: 279-304

Authors (3)

David K. Backus Silverio Foresi (not in RePEc) Chris I. Telmer (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

One of the most puzzling features of currency prices is the forward premium anomaly: the tendency for high interest rate currencies to appreciate. We characterize the anomaly in the context of affine models of the term structure of interest rates. In affine models, the anomaly requires either that state variables have asymmetric effects on state prices in different currencies or that nominal interest rates take on negative values with positive probability. We find the quantitative properties of either alternative to have important shortcomings.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:jfinan:v:56:y:2001:i:1:p:279-304
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-24