Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses

S-Tier
Journal: Econometrica
Year: 2021
Volume: 89
Issue: 2
Pages: 955-980

Authors (2)

Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller (not in RePEc) Christian K. Wolf (Massachusetts Institute of Tec...)

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We prove that local projections (LPs) and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) estimate the same impulse responses. This nonparametric result only requires unrestricted lag structures. We discuss several implications: (i) LP and VAR estimators are not conceptually separate procedures; instead, they are simply two dimension reduction techniques with common estimand but different finite‐sample properties. (ii) VAR‐based structural identification—including short‐run, long‐run, or sign restrictions—can equivalently be performed using LPs, and vice versa. (iii) Structural estimation with an instrument (proxy) can be carried out by ordering the instrument first in a recursive VAR, even under noninvertibility. (iv) Linear VARs are as robust to nonlinearities as linear LPs.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:emetrp:v:89:y:2021:i:2:p:955-980
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29