Simultaneous confidence bands: Theory, implementation, and an application to SVARs

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Applied Econometrics
Year: 2019
Volume: 34
Issue: 1
Pages: 1-17

Authors (2)

José Luis Montiel Olea (not in RePEc) Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Simultaneous confidence bands are versatile tools for visualizing estimation uncertainty for parameter vectors, such as impulse response functions. In linear models, it is known that that the sup‐t confidence band is narrower than commonly used alternatives—for example, Bonferroni and projection bands. We show that the same ranking applies asymptotically even in general nonlinear models, such as vector autoregressions (VARs). Moreover, we provide further justification for the sup‐t band by showing that it is the optimal default choice when the researcher does not know the audience's preferences. Complementing existing plug‐in and bootstrap implementations, we propose a computationally convenient Bayesian sup‐t band with exact finite‐sample simultaneous credibility. In an application to structural VAR impulse response function estimation, the sup‐t band—which has been surprisingly overlooked in this setting—is at least 35% narrower than other off‐the‐shelf simultaneous bands.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:japmet:v:34:y:2019:i:1:p:1-17
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29