Testing out-of-sample portfolio performance

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Year: 2019
Volume: 35
Issue: 2
Pages: 540-554

Authors (2)

Kazak, Ekaterina (not in RePEc) Pohlmeier, Winfried (Universität Konstanz)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper studies the quality of portfolio performance tests based on out-of-sample returns. By disentangling the components of the out-of-sample performance, we show that the observed differences are driven largely by the differences in estimation risk. Our Monte Carlo study reveals that the puzzling empirical findings of inferior performances of theoretically superior strategies result mainly from the low power of these tests. Thus, our results provide an explanation as to why the null hypothesis of equal performance of the simple equally-weighted portfolio compared to many theoretically-superior alternative strategies cannot be rejected in many out-of-sample horse races. Our findings turn out to be robust with respect to different designs and the implementation strategies of the tests.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:2:p:540-554
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29