Bayesian mixed-frequency quantile vector autoregression: Eliciting tail risks of monthly US GDP

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Year: 2023
Volume: 157
Issue: C

Authors (4)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Timely characterizations of risks in economic and financial systems play an essential role in both economic policy and private sector decisions. However, the informational content of low-frequency variables and the results from conditional mean models provide only limited evidence to investigate this problem. We propose a novel mixed-frequency quantile vector autoregression (MF-QVAR) model to address this issue. Inspired by the univariate Bayesian quantile regression literature, the multivariate asymmetric Laplace distribution is exploited under the Bayesian framework to form the likelihood. A data augmentation approach coupled with a precision sampler efficiently estimates the missing low-frequency variables at higher frequencies under the state-space representation.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:dyncon:v:157:y:2023:i:c:s016518892300163x
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-29