Adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Year: 2008
Volume: 32
Issue: 11
Pages: 3661-3681

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper investigates monetary policy design when central bank and private-sector expectations differ. Private agents learn adaptively; the central bank has a possibly misspecified model of the economy. Successful implementation of optimal policy using inflation targeting rules requires the central bank to have complete knowledge of private agents' learning behavior. If the central bank mistakenly assumes private agents to have rational expectations when in fact they are learning, then policy rules frequently lead to divergent learning dynamics. However, if the central bank does not correctly understand agents' behavior, stabilization policy is best implemented by controlling the path of the price level rather than the inflation rate.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:11:p:3661-3681
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-29