Ricardian equivalence, foreign debt and sovereign default risk

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
Year: 2022
Volume: 197
Issue: C
Pages: 21-49

Authors (2)

Eichler, Stefan (not in RePEc) Pyun, Ju Hyun (Korea University)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study the impact of sovereign solvency on the private-public savings offset. Using data on 80 economies for 1989–2018, we find robust evidence for a U-shaped pattern in the private-public savings offset in sovereign credit ratings. While the 1:1 savings offset is observed at intermediate levels of sovereign solvency, fiscal deficits are not offset by private savings at extremely low and high levels of sovereign solvency. Particularly, the U-shaped pattern is more pronounced for countries with high levels of foreign ownership of government debt. The U-shaped pattern is an emerging market phenomenon; additionally, it is confirmed when considering foreign currency rating and external public debt, but not for domestic currency rating and domestic public debt. For considerable foreign ownership of sovereign bonds, sovereign default constitutes a net wealth gain for domestic consumers.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jeborg:v:197:y:2022:i:c:p:21-49
Journal Field
Theory
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29