Macroeconomic news, announcements, and stock market jump intensity dynamics

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance
Year: 2011
Volume: 35
Issue: 5
Pages: 1263-1276

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of macroeconomic releases on stock market volatility through a Poisson-Gaussian-GARCH process with time-varying jump intensity, which is allowed to respond to such information. The day of the announcement, per se, is found to have little impact on jump intensities. Employment releases are an exception. However, when macroeconomic surprises are considered, inflation shocks show persistent effects while monetary policy and employment shocks reveal only short-lived effects. Also, the jump intensity responds asymmetrically to macroeconomic shocks. Evidence on macroeconomic variables relevance in explaining jump dynamics and improving volatility forecasts on event days is provided.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:5:p:1263-1276
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-29