Oil price dynamics and market-based inflation expectations

A-Tier
Journal: Energy Economics
Year: 2018
Volume: 75
Issue: C
Pages: 484-491

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We examine the link between oil prices and market-based inflation expectations in the United States. Using a Gaussian affine term structure model, we decompose the breakeven inflation into three components: the market-based inflation expectations, the inflation risk premium and the liquidity risk premium. We show that oil prices have a nonlinear impact on the 5- and 10-year market-based inflation expectation components. Specifically, we find that the impact of oil price changes on inflation expectations is more intense when oil prices are above a threshold of 67 USD per barrel and is more pervasive for the intermediate term than for the longer term. Furthermore, we show that oil prices have a nonlinear impact on the inflation risk premium. These results have implications for the management of inflation expectations.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eneeco:v:75:y:2018:i:c:p:484-491
Journal Field
Energy
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29