Pretest with Caution: Event-Study Estimates after Testing for Parallel Trends

A-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review: Insights
Year: 2022
Volume: 4
Issue: 3
Pages: 305-22

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper discusses two important limitations of the common practice of testing for preexisting differences in trends ("pre-trends") when using difference-in-differences and related methods. First, conventional pre-trends tests may have low power. Second, conditioning the analysis on the result of a pretest can distort estimation and inference, potentially exacerbating the bias of point estimates and under-coverage of confidence intervals. I analyze these issues both in theory and in simulations calibrated to a survey of recent papers in leading economics journals, which suggest that these limitations are important in practice. I conclude with practical recommendations for mitigating these issues.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aerins:v:4:y:2022:i:3:p:305-22
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-29