Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Finance
Year: 2025
Volume: 80
Issue: 2
Pages: 783-832

Authors (3)

MATHIAS S. KRUTTLI (not in RePEc) BRIGITTE ROTH TRAN (Federal Reserve Bank of San Fr...) SUMUDU W. WATUGALA (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.345 = (α=2.02 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We empirically analyze firm‐level uncertainty generated from extreme weather events, guided by a theoretical framework. Stock options of firms with establishments in a hurricane's (forecast) landfall region exhibit large implied volatility increases, reflecting significant uncertainty (before) after impact. Volatility risk premium dynamics reveal that investors underestimate such uncertainty. This underreaction diminishes for hurricanes after Sandy, a salient event that struck the U.S. financial center. Despite constituting idiosyncratic shocks, hurricanes affect hit firms' expected stock returns. Textual analysis of calls between firm management, analysts, and investors reveals that discussions about hurricane impacts remain elevated throughout the long‐lasting high‐uncertainty period after landfall.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:jfinan:v:80:y:2025:i:2:p:783-832
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29