Accurate Confidence Regions for Principal Components Factors

B-Tier
Journal: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Year: 2021
Volume: 83
Issue: 6
Pages: 1432-1453

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

In dynamic factor models, factors are often extracted using principal components with their asymptotic confidence regions having empirical coverages below the nominal ones when the temporal dimension is small. We propose a subsampling procedure to compute the factor loadings uncertainty and correct the asymptotic covariance matrix of the extracted factors. We show that the empirical coverages of the modified confidence regions are closer to the nominal ones than those of asymptotic regions and asymptotically valid bootstrap regions. The results are empirically illustrated obtaining confidence intervals of the underlying factor in a system of Spanish macroeconomic variables.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:obuest:v:83:y:2021:i:6:p:1432-1453
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29