Global foreign exchange volatility, ambiguity, and currency carry trades

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance
Year: 2025
Volume: 178
Issue: C

Authors (3)

Asano, Takao (not in RePEc) Cai, Xiaojing (not in RePEc) Sakemoto, Ryuta (Hokkaido University)

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This study investigates the relationships between currency portfolios and market conditions. We incorporate information on cross-sectional foreign exchange (FX) volatility and ambiguity to determine FX market regimes. Unlike previous studies, we find that high FX volatility leads to higher currency carry returns only when FX ambiguity is high, suggesting that investors avoid making trading decisions during these periods. As a result, the unwinding of currency carry trades, which is usually associated with high FX volatility and declining in carry trade returns, does not occur. We also observe that this pattern does not emerge in other currency portfolios.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jbfina:v:178:y:2025:i:c:s0378426625001281
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29