The trade imbalance network and currency returns

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Financial Economics
Year: 2025
Volume: 172
Issue: C

Authors (3)

Hou, Ai Jun (not in RePEc) Sarno, Lucio (University of Cambridge) Ye, Xiaoxia (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We introduce in the theory of Gabaix and Maggiori (2015) a network structure to capture the complexity of the balance sheets of financial intermediaries, using the Leontief inverse-based centrality. We use this framework in a multi-country world with imperfect financial markets to study how currency risk premia are connected to financiers’ risk bearing capacity. Guided by the theory, we construct a Centrality Based Characteristic (CBC), based on the centrality of the trade imbalance network and variance–covariance matrix of currency returns. Sorting currencies on CBC generates a high Sharpe ratio, and the resulting excess returns reflect a novel source of predictability.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jfinec:v:172:y:2025:i:c:s0304405x25001205
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29