Shrinkage Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models with Structural Instabilities

S-Tier
Journal: Review of Economic Studies
Year: 2016
Volume: 83
Issue: 4
Pages: 1511-1543

Authors (3)

Xu Cheng (not in RePEc) Zhipeng Liao (not in RePEc) Frank Schorfheide (University of Pennsylvania)

Score contribution per author:

2.681 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

In large-scale panel data models with latent factors the number of factors and their loadings may change over time. Treating the break date as unknown, this article proposes an adaptive group-LASSO estimator that consistently determines the numbers of pre- and post-break factors and the stability of factor loadings if the number of factors is constant. We develop a cross-validation procedure to fine-tune the data-dependent LASSO penalties and show that after the number of factors has been determined, a conventional least-squares approach can be used to estimate the break date consistently. The method performs well in Monte Carlo simulations. In an empirical application, we study the change in factor loadings and the emergence of new factors in a panel of U.S. macroeconomic and financial time series during the Great Recession.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:restud:v:83:y:2016:i:4:p:1511-1543.
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29