Detecting Edgeworth Cycles

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Law and Economics
Year: 2024
Volume: 67
Issue: 1
Pages: 67 - 102

Authors (3)

Timothy Holt (not in RePEc) Mitsuru Igami (not in RePEc) Simon Scheidegger (Université de Lausanne)

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We develop and test algorithms to detect Edgeworth cycles, which are asymmetric price movements that have caused antitrust concerns in many countries. We formalize four existing methods and propose six new methods based on spectral analysis and machine learning. We evaluate their accuracy in station-level gasoline-price data from Western Australia, New South Wales, and Germany. Most methods achieve high accuracy with data from Western Australia and New South Wales, but only a few can detect the nuanced cycles in Germany. Results suggest that whether researchers find a positive or negative statistical relationship between cycles and markups, and hence their implications for competition policy, crucially depends on the choice of methods. We conclude with a set of practical recommendations.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ucp:jlawec:doi:10.1086/726224
Journal Field
Industrial Organization
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29