Naive traders and mispricing in prediction markets

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic Theory
Year: 2012
Volume: 147
Issue: 5
Pages: 1882-1912

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper studies pricing patterns in a speculative market with asymmetric information populated by both sophisticated and naive traders. Three pricing regimes arise in equilibrium: perfect pricing, with prices equalling asset values, partial mispricing and complete mispricing. Perfect pricing obtains when the presence of naive traders is small although not necessarily zero. When the fraction of naive traders is moderate prices are correct for some values but not for others. Finally, complete mispricing typically arises when the presence of naive traders is sufficiently high. Mispricing exhibits a systematic pattern of overpricing low values and underpricing high values.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jetheo:v:147:y:2012:i:5:p:1882-1912
Journal Field
Theory
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-29