A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Year: 2020
Volume: 38
Issue: 2
Pages: 367-379

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This article introduces the use of the sign restrictions methodology to identify uncertainty shocks. We apply our methodology to a class of vector autoregression models with stochastic volatility that allow volatility fluctuations to impact the conditional mean. We combine sign restrictions on the conditional mean and conditional second moment impulse responses to identify financial and macro uncertainty shocks. On U.S. data, we find stronger evidence that financial uncertainty shocks lead to a decline in real activity and an easing of the federal funds rate relative to macro uncertainty shocks. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:jnlbes:v:38:y:2020:i:2:p:367-379
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29