Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals in a new Markov‐STAR Model

B-Tier
Journal: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Year: 2022
Volume: 84
Issue: 2
Pages: 356-379

Authors (4)

Philip Bertram (not in RePEc) Teresa Flock (not in RePEc) Jun Ma (not in RePEc) Philipp Sibbertsen (Leibniz Universität Hannover)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We propose a new nonlinear Markov‐STAR model to capture both the Markov switching and smooth transition dynamics for real exchange rates. We derive stationarity conditions for the model and apply it to the real exchange rates of 17 countries. We relate switching equilibrium rates and volatilities to a set of relevant macroeconomic variables and find, consistent with economic intuitions, that an economy deteriorating relative to the US economy tends to see a significantly increased likelihood of real exchange rate depreciation. Moreover, we document significant connections between rising economic uncertainties and real exchange rate changes as well as exchange rate volatility.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:obuest:v:84:y:2022:i:2:p:356-379
Journal Field
General
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-29