Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
Year: 2008
Volume: 67
Issue: 1
Pages: 116-133

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We present results on expectation formation in a controlled experimental environment. In each period subjects are asked to predict the next price of a risky asset. The realized market price is derived from an unknown market equilibrium equation with feedback from individual forecasts. In most experiments prices deviate from the benchmark fundamental and bubbles emerge endogenously. These bubbles are inconsistent with rational expectations and seem to be driven by trend chasing behavior or "positive feedback expectations" of the participants. We also analyze individual predictions of participants and find that participants within a group tend to coordinate on a common prediction strategy.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jeborg:v:67:y:2008:i:1:p:116-133
Journal Field
Theory
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-29