Political selection when uncertainty is high

Abstract

Do voters place their trust in tried and tested leaders when uncertainty is high or do they prefer a new slate of leaders who are arguably more competent? To study this question, we make use of hand‐collected data on 402,385 candidates who competed in open‐list local council elections (1996–2020) in Bavaria. The 2020 elections took place at the dawn of the Covid‐19 pandemic, a time of high uncertainty about the future course of events. Using local heterogeneity in Covid‐19 outbreaks and related school/daycare closures to proxy the degree of perceived uncertainty across Bavarian municipalities, we show with a difference‐in‐differences design that councilors' incumbency advantage declined more in exposed municipalities. This decrease in the incumbency advantage is limited to male and non‐university educated incumbents, resulting in shifted patterns of political selection. Overall, we conclude that voters select more competent politicians when they face uncertainty about the future.