Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
•U.S. trade policy shifts could severely impact agricultural exports by up to 34.4 %.•Projected losses in U.S. agricultural exports range from $6.8 billion to $60.6 billion.•Scenario analysis shows the agricultural sector could face its worst crisis since the 1980s.•Policy recommendations emphasize bolstering domestic value-added agriculture and forming new trade partnerships.•Trade retaliation effects underscore the need for careful consideration of future trade policies.