Proper scoring rules with arbitrary value functions

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Mathematical Economics
Year: 2010
Volume: 46
Issue: 6
Pages: 1200-1210

Authors (3)

Fang, Fang (not in RePEc) Stinchcombe, Maxwell B. (University of Texas-Austin) Whinston, Andrew B. (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Abstract A scoring rule is proper if it elicits an expert's true beliefs as a probabilistic forecast, and it is strictly proper if it uniquely elicits an expert's true beliefs. The value function associated with a (strictly) proper scoring rule is (strictly) convex on any convex set of beliefs. This paper gives conditions on compact sets of possible beliefs [Theta] that guarantee that every continuous value function on [Theta] is the value function associated with some strictly proper scoring rule. Compact subsets of many parametrized sets of distributions on satisfy these conditions.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:mateco:v:46:y:2010:i:6:p:1200-1210
Journal Field
Theory
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29