Examining Predictive Accuracy Among Discounting Models.

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Year: 2002
Volume: 24
Issue: 2
Pages: 143-60

Authors (2)

Keller, L Robin (not in RePEc) Strazzera, Elisabetta

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Both descriptive and normative arguments claim that the discount rate to be applied to public projects should be elicited from individual intertemporal preferences. We present a methodology to analyze data from experimental surveys on intertemporal preferences. Focusing on the exponential and the hyperbolic discounting models, we model the experimental data published by Thaler (1981) by means of different specifications. Standard measures of goodness of prediction are then applied to fitted data to select among alternative specifications. We first present our approach by applying it to simulated data. We then present a procedure for statistical estimation of the sample discount rate, testing four specifications. Copyright 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:kap:jrisku:v:24:y:2002:i:2:p:143-60
Journal Field
Theory
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29