Identifying Present Bias from the Timing of Choices

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2021
Volume: 111
Issue: 8
Pages: 2594-2622

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

A (partially naive) quasi-hyperbolic discounter repeatedly chooses whether to complete a task. Her net benefits of task completion are drawn independently between periods from a time-invariant distribution. We show that the probability of completing the task conditional on not having done so earlier increases towards the deadline. Conversely, we establish nonidentifiability by proving that for any time-preference parameters and any dataset with such (weakly increasing) task-completion probabilities, there exists a stationary payoff distribution that rationalizes the agent's behavior if she is either sophisticated or fully naive. Additionally, we provide sharp partial identification for the case of observable continuation values.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:111:y:2021:i:8:p:2594-2622
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29