Is There Really Granger Causality between Energy Use and Output?

B-Tier
Journal: The Energy Journal
Year: 2014
Volume: 35
Issue: 4
Pages: 101-134

Authors (3)

Stephan B. Bruns (not in RePEc) Christian Gross (not in RePEc) David I. Stern (Australian National University)

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We carry out a meta-analysis of the very large literature on testing for Granger causality between energy use and economic output to determine if there is a genuine effect in this literature or whether the large number of apparently significant results is due to publication or misspecification bias. Our model extends the standard meta-regression model for detecting genuine effects in the presence of publication biases using the statistical power trace by controlling for the tendency to over-fit vector autoregression models in small samples. Granger causality tests in these over-fitted models have inflated type I errors. We cannot find a genuine causal effect in the literature as a whole. However, there is a robust genuine effect from output to energy use when energy prices are controlled for.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:sae:enejou:v:35:y:2014:i:4:p:101-134
Journal Field
Energy
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29