Have Inflation Expectations Become Un-anchored? The Role of Oil Prices and Global Aggregate Demand

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Central Banking
Year: 2022
Volume: 18
Issue: 2
Pages: 149-192

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Beginning with the global financial crisis (2008), the correlation between crude oil prices and medium-term and forward inflation expectations increased, leading to fears of their unanchoring. Using the first principal component of commodity prices as a measure for global aggregate demand, we decompose nominal oil prices to a global demand factor and an idiosyncratic factor. In a Phillips-curve framework, we find a structural change after the collapse of Lehman Brothers when inflation expectations reacted more strongly to global aggregate demand conditions. Within this framework, we find no evidence that expectations became un-anchored.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2022:q:2:a:4
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29