Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
China has to make full use of natural gas for a long period due to its cleanness and economy. To ensure energy security and promote natural gas development, it is necessary to reasonably predict natural gas peak under the background of unconventional natural gas replacing conventional natural gas in the long term. Based on Hubbert's peak theory, this paper forecasts that China's natural gas production will reach 196.7–582.5 billion cubic meters when considering the contribution of unconventional natural gas. The upper value is an optimistic scenario that fully considers the impact of technological progress and development investment on unconventional natural gas exploration. In an optimistic scenario, China can achieve energy security and a Nationally Determined Contribution plan by controlling the foreign dependence on natural gas within 40%. This paper also analyzes the internal mechanism between resource scarcity, natural gas peak and energy transformation from an energy return on investment. China's EROI in the oil and gas industries has experienced a U-shaped fluctuation process; in an optimistic scenario; EROI will continue to rise until natural gas production reaches its peak and effectively make natural gas the bridging fuel for the transformation from fossil energy to renewable energy.