Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
The methods of Gürkaynak et al. (2005a) are extended to separately identify surprise changes in the federal funds rate, forward guidance, and large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) for each FOMC announcement from July 1991 to June 2019. Forward guidance and LSAPs had substantial and highly statistically significant effects on Treasury yields, corporate bond yields, stock prices, and exchange rates, comparable in magnitude to the effects of the federal funds rate in normal times. These effects were all very persistent, with the exception of the very large and perhaps special March 2009 “QE1” announcement for LSAPs.