Slow Recoveries and Unemployment Traps: Monetary Policy in a Time of Hysteresis

A-Tier
Journal: Economic Journal
Year: 2022
Volume: 132
Issue: 646
Pages: 2007-2047

Authors (4)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We analyse monetary policy in a model where temporary shocks can permanently scar the economy’s productive capacity. Workers lose skill while unemployed and are costly to retrain, generating multiple steady-state unemployment rates. Following a large shock, unless monetary policy acts aggressively and quickly enough to prevent a significant rise in unemployment, hiring falls to a point where the economy recovers slowly at best—at worst, it falls into a permanent unemployment trap. Monetary policy can only avoid these outcomes if it commits in a timely manner to more accommodative policy in the future. Timely commitment is essential as the effectiveness of monetary policy is state dependent: once the recession has left substantial scars, monetary policy cannot speed up a slow recovery, or escape from an unemployment trap.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:econjl:v:132:y:2022:i:646:p:2007-2047.
Journal Field
General
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-24