Firm Uncertainty Cycles and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks

A-Tier
Journal: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Year: 2019
Volume: 11
Issue: 1
Pages: 276-337

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We develop a framework to study the impact of idiosyncratic uncertainty on aggregate economic outcomes. Agents learn about individual characteristics, which receive infrequent, large, and persistent shocks. In this environment, idiosyncratic uncertainty moves in cycles, fluctuating between periods of high and low uncertainty; with additional fixed adjustment costs, the frequency and size of agents' actions also fluctuate in cycles. We apply our framework to study pricing behavior and the propagation of nominal shocks. We show, analytically and quantitatively, that idiosyncratic uncertainty cycles amplify the real effects of nominal shocks by generating cross-sectional dispersion in firms' adjustment frequency and in learning speed.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aejmac:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:276-337
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24