The Macro Impact of Short‐Termism

S-Tier
Journal: Econometrica
Year: 2023
Volume: 91
Issue: 5
Pages: 1881-1912

Score contribution per author:

8.043 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

R&D investment reduces current profits, so short‐term pressure to hit profit targets may distort R&D. In the data, firms just meeting Wall Street forecasts have lower R&D growth and subsequent innovation, while managers just missing receive lower pay. But short‐termist distortions might not quantitatively matter if aggregation or equilibrium dampen their impact. So I build and estimate a quantitative endogenous growth model in which short‐termism arises naturally as discipline on conflicted managers and boosts firm value by about 1%. But short‐termism reduces R&D, and the social return to R&D is higher than the private return due to standard channels including knowledge spillovers and imperfect competition. So at the macro level, short‐termist distortions slow growth by 5 basis points yearly and lower social welfare by about 1%.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:emetrp:v:91:y:2023:i:5:p:1881-1912
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-29