Monthly forecasting of GDP with mixed-frequency multivariate singular spectrum analysis

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Year: 2019
Volume: 35
Issue: 4
Pages: 1263-1272

Authors (4)

Hassani, Hossein (not in RePEc) Rua, António (not in RePEc) Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal (not in RePEc) Thomakos, Dimitrios (National)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

The literature on mixed-frequency models is relatively recent and has found applications across economics and finance. The standard application in economics considers the use of (usually) monthly variables (e.g. industrial production) for predicting/fitting quarterly variables (e.g. real GDP). This paper proposes a multivariate singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) based method for mixed-frequency interpolation and forecasting, which can be used for any mixed-frequency combination. The novelty of the proposed approach rests on the grounds of simplicity within the MSSA framework. We present our method using a combination of monthly and quarterly series and apply MSSA decomposition and reconstruction to obtain monthly estimates and forecasts for the quarterly series. Our empirical application shows that the suggested approach works well, as it offers forecasting improvements on a dataset of eleven developed countries over the last 50 years. The implications for mixed-frequency modelling and forecasting, and useful extensions of this method, are also discussed.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1263-1272
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-29