Risk Preferences and the Macroeconomic Announcement Premium

S-Tier
Journal: Econometrica
Year: 2018
Volume: 86
Issue: 4
Pages: 1383-1430

Authors (2)

Hengjie Ai (not in RePEc) Ravi Bansal (Duke University)

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper develops a revealed preference theory for the equity premium around macroeconomic announcements. Stock returns realized around pre‐scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as the employment report and the FOMC statements, account for 55% of the market equity premium. We provide a characterization theorem for the set of intertemporal preferences that generates a nonnegative announcement premium. Our theory establishes that the announcement premium identifies a significant deviation from time‐separable expected utility and provides asset‐market‐based evidence for a large class of non‐expected utility models. We also provide conditions under which asset prices may rise prior to some macroeconomic announcements and exhibit a pre‐announcement drift.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:emetrp:v:86:y:2018:i:4:p:1383-1430
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24