Did US Politicians Expect the China Shock?

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2023
Volume: 113
Issue: 1
Pages: 174-209

Authors (3)

Matilde Bombardini (not in RePEc) Bingjing Li (not in RePEc) Francesco Trebbi (University of California-Berke...)

Score contribution per author:

2.681 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Information sets, expectations, and preferences of politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices. Employing repeated votes in the US House of Representatives on China's normal trade relations (NTR) status during the two decades straddling China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, we apply a moment inequality approach designed to deliver consistent estimates under weak informational assumptions on the information sets of members of Congress. This methodology offers a robust way to test hypotheses about what information politicians have at the time of their decision and to estimate the weight that constituents, ideology, and other factors have in policy making and voting.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:113:y:2023:i:1:p:174-209
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29