Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging

B-Tier
Journal: European Economic Review
Year: 2013
Volume: 62
Issue: C
Pages: 17-40

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Proper Scoring Rules (PSRs) are popular incentivized mechanisms to elicit an agent's beliefs. This paper combines theory and experiment to characterize how PSRs bias reported beliefs when (i) the PSR payments are increased, (ii) the agent has a financial stake in the event she is predicting, and (iii) the agent can hedge her prediction by taking an additional action. In contrast with previous literature, the PSR biases are characterized for all PSRs and all risk averse agents. Our results reveal complex distortions of reported beliefs, thereby raising concerns about the ability of PSRs to recover truthful beliefs in general decision-making environments.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:eecrev:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:17-40
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29