How Do Alphas and Betas Move? Uncertainty, Learning and Time Variation in Risk Loadings

B-Tier
Journal: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Year: 2014
Volume: 76
Issue: 2
Pages: 257-278

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>I employ a parsimonious model with learning, but without conditioning information, to extract time-varying measures of market-risk sensitivities, pricing errors and pricing uncertainty. The evolution of these quantities has interesting implications for macroeconomic dynamics. Parameters estimated for US equity portfolios display significant low-frequency fluctuations, along patterns that change across size and book-to-market stocks. Time-varying betas display superior predictive accuracy for returns against constant and rolling-window OLS estimates. As to the relationship of betas with business-cycle variables, value stocks’ betas move pro-cyclically, unlike those of growth stocks. Investment growth, rather than consumption, predicts the betas of value and small-firm portfolios.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:obuest:v:76:y:2014:i:2:p:257-278
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-29