Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross Country Evidence Really Show?

A-Tier
Journal: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Year: 2013
Volume: 5
Issue: 1
Pages: 49-80

Authors (2)

Anca M. Cotet (not in RePEc) Kevin K. Tsui (Clemson University)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper re-examines the effect of oil wealth on political violence. Using a unique historical panel dataset of oil discoveries, we show that simply controlling for country fixed effects removes the statistical association between the value of oil reserves and civil war onset. Other macro-political violence measures, such as coup attempts, are also uncorrelated with oil wealth. To further address endogeneity concerns, we exploit changes in oil reserves due to randomness in the success of oil explorations. We find little robust evidence that oil discoveries increase the likelihood of political violence. Rather, oil discoveries increase military spending in nondemocratic countries. (JEL D74, H56, O17, Q34, Q41)

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aejmac:v:5:y:2013:i:1:p:49-80
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29