Modelling dynamic connectedness between oil price shocks and exchange rates in ASEAN+3 economies

Abstract

This study analyses the impact of the oil price shocks (demand, supply, and risk) on the exchange rates of a unique group of developed and emerging economies that comprise the ASEAN +3 countries. We combine a novel approach to decomposing the oil price shocks at a higher (daily) frequency with the dynamic network connected approach to analyse the connectedness of the oil shocks and exchange rates from January 2006 to July 2020, enabling us to cover various phases of the business cycle in these economies. Our results show that demand and risk shocks are the main contributors to the connectedness. We document that the Singapore dollar and the Malaysian Ringgit are the main transmitters of shocks in the ASEAN +3 group, whereas the role of the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen is rather limited despite the bigger size of these two economies. Our results have important policy implications for investors, regulators, and policymakers.