Impact of oil price shocks on output, inflation and the real exchange rate: evidence from selected ASEAN countries

C-Tier
Journal: Applied Economics
Year: 2015
Volume: 47
Issue: 29
Pages: 3078-3091

Authors (2)

Hem C. Basnet (not in RePEc) Kamal P. Upadhyaya

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This article analyses the impact of oil price shocks on real output, inflation and the real exchange rate in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia (ASEAN-5) using a Structural VAR model. The cointegration tests indicate that the macroeconomic variables of these countries are cointegrated and share common trends in the long run. The impulse response functions reveal that oil price fluctuations do not impact the ASEAN-5 economies in the long run and much of its effect is absorbed within five to six quarters. The variance decomposition results further assert that with a few exceptions oil price shocks do not explain a significant variation in any of the variables under consideration. We also identify a very unique pattern of response to oil price fluctuations between Malaysia and Singapore and between the Philippines and Thailand. The pairs exhibit a high degree of similarity in their responses; they do not share any commonalities across the group.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:29:p:3078-3091
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-29