Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach

A-Tier
Journal: The Review of Financial Studies
Year: 2007
Volume: 20
Issue: 1
Pages: 41-81

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We develop a model for an investor with multiple priors and aversion to ambiguity. We characterize the multiple priors by a "confidence interval" around the estimated expected returns and we model ambiguity aversion via a minimization over the priors. Our model has several attractive features: (1) it has a solid axiomatic foundation; (2) it is flexible enough to allow for different degrees of uncertainty about expected returns for various subsets of assets and also about the return-generating model; and (3) it delivers closed-form expressions for the optimal portfolio. Our empirical analysis suggests that, compared with portfolios from classical and Bayesian models, ambiguity-averse portfolios are more stable over time and deliver a higher out-of sample Sharpe ratio. (JEL G11) Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:rfinst:v:20:y:2007:i:1:p:41-81
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29