Evaluating the accuracy of value-at-risk forecasts: New multilevel tests

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Year: 2014
Volume: 30
Issue: 2
Pages: 206-216

Authors (3)

Leccadito, Arturo (not in RePEc) Boffelli, Simona (not in RePEc) Urga, Giovanni (City University)

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We propose independence and conditional coverage tests which are aimed at evaluating the accuracy of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts from the same model at different confidence levels. The proposed procedures are multilevel tests, i.e., joint tests of several quantiles corresponding to different confidence levels. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo exercise, we document the superiority of the proposed tests with respect to existing multilevel tests. In an empirical application, we illustrate the implementation of the tests using several VaR models and daily data for 15 MSCI world indices.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:intfor:v:30:y:2014:i:2:p:206-216
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-29